AI-native strategies · built in the open
Trading just got an
AI-native era.
Come build it with us.
Balder is an AI-native trading desk. An agent loop researches, tests and trades — reading filings, option chains and institutional flow at a scale no analyst team can match — and every position it takes is published, on entry and on exit.
Members get more than signals. You get the tools, the structure reads, the earnings radar, and the reasoning behind every call — so you learn how an edge gets found, not just what to buy. Three engines live. More every month.
Backdrop: cumulative per-trade return across 55 closed trades (07-31–08-15) — equal weight, a sum of trade returns, not a portfolio return.
Calls that worked
Balder’s Position — the four best, entry to exit
The top four closed positions from the long book. Gold marks where the book disclosed the entry, white where it announced the exit — and because both were published before the outcome was known, the full record, losers included, is one click away.
The products
Everything this desk publishes
Six live products, each with its own page — how it's built, what it found, and what it's saying right now. Two are free and need no account.
Earnings Radar
What options charge for the jump versus what the stock actually does.
Open the radar →
Structure Read
Pivots, break triggers, measured targets and the read in words.
Open a chart →16:00–09:30 CME futures
Sat & Sun Hyperliquid perps
Markets around the clock
SPX, NDX and 13 stocks priced overnight and at weekends — real prints, no gaps.
Open the board →
SPX probability cone
A distribution on the next close — 6,000 gamma-adjusted paths.
Open the forecast →
龙气🤖 algo-logs
Two short-term strategies, hours to days, reported live and summed up after the close.
See every trade →
Balder’s Position
Uptrend trend-following, published after the close, entry and exit both disclosed.
See the record →Why this is different
Anyone can run a model. Almost nobody checks the inputs.
Most market coverage is a vendor feed with a chart on top. This desk reads the primary record and fixes what the feeds get wrong — which is where the edge actually lives now that everyone has the same models.
We read the filings, not a feed
The Q2 flow panel is rebuilt from SEC’s raw 13F data across 1,410 managers and 4.77M holdings — then corrected for stock splits, entity migrations, CUSIP changes and filer misreporting. Every one of those makes a vendor number quietly wrong.
Details other people get wrong
An earnings reaction lands on a different day for a pre-market reporter than an after-close one. Measure both alike — as most sources do — and a fairly-priced option looks 4× too expensive. Ours is session-aligned.
Upstream of the news
Form 4 insider buys and 13D stakes are pulled straight off EDGAR twice a day, filtered to open-market purchases with the insider’s own cash. The filing is public before anyone writes it up.
The loop keeps compounding
The research agent runs continuously — testing ideas, killing the ones that fail, and promoting what survives. Three engines live today. The ones that reach the site are the ones that already earned their place.
Highlights
Posts that travelled
Written by Balder, not by the machine — the desk publishes the data, these are the calls and arguments around it. Numbers are the real reach on X. Balder writes mostly in Chinese; these are the originals, unedited.
又有人问我Fable是怎么预测财报的，我来泄露一下商业机密吧。 首先肯定不是你直接问Fable这个财报怎么看，这样做是没用的，虽然Fable拥有比我们所有人都多的知识，但是没有结构性的输入就不会有结构性的输出。
Read it on X →Michael Burry重仓 11%仓位做空 $NBIS 今天遭到30%的暴涨。 在这种毁灭性轧空之下，MB决定加大做空仓位。 substack还能继续提供无限弹药吗？
Read it on X →Jane Street 在 7 月 引起Situational Awareness 大崩溃中录得 150 亿美元亏损，几乎抹去了去年大牛市中获得利润的一半。 所以就连天天割散户韭菜的，地表最强大量化机构也在今年七月折戟。 所以我们度过了毁灭性的7月 迎来了充满希望的八月。
Read it on X →Fable认为 $LITE 财报要上涨 $GLW 侧击还是 $LITX 直接轰入。
Read it on X →$MU 的IV出现了崩溃式的下跌，今天不涨不跌，昨天买的期权都会自动减10% 这究竟是什么原因，是谁在拼命卖出 $MU 的期权。
Read it on X →$MU 这种情况，就很容易引起严重的Gamma squeeze，这些人卖出的低价期权一下成了燃料罐。末日期权IV直接从70%飙升到接近100% 所以我们说目前这个期权价格是mis-price，后面他们肯定要修复的。
Read it on X →Recent opinion
The read, in order
Balder’s own posts, newest first, in the language they were written in. Click any of them to open the original on X.
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Markets around the clock
The market closes.
The world doesn’t.
Friday 4pm the tape stops, and for 65 hours every app you own shows you a dead number. Meanwhile Tokyo trades, futures move, and by Monday’s open the gap has already happened — you just weren’t allowed to watch it.
Track the market when the market is shut
This one forecasts nothing. It is a live board that never goes dark: cash index during US hours, CME futures overnight, and Hyperliquid perps at weekends — so there is a real price at 3am on a Sunday instead of a stale Friday close. Every number is an actual print from a named venue. Only tickers with a genuine 24/7 venue appear; nothing is invented to fill a gap.
- Indices — SPX and NDX: cash in RTH, CME futures (ES/NQ minus basis) overnight, Hyperliquid US500/USTECH perps at weekends.
- Single stocks — 13 names with a real round-the-clock venue: US consolidated print 4am–8pm ET, then builder-dex perp marks overnight, validated to track spot within about 1%.
- No fabricated quotes — if a name has no genuine overnight venue, it is simply not on the board.
SPX forecast
Tomorrow’s probability cone
A forecast, and deliberately separate from the 24/7 board — that one reports prints, this one puts a distribution on tomorrow’s close. Six thousand Monte-Carlo paths, gamma-adjusted, anchored on the live option chain: where dealers damp or amplify moves, and the walls that tend to pin price.
LAST SESSION · 2026-08-14
A 68% band that contains the close 94% of the time is too wide, not “94% accurate”. The honest read is that the cone is currently conservative, and tightening it is open work. We publish the number either way.
Every session on the ledger
The band published that morning, and where the index actually closed.
| Session | 68% band | 95% band | Close | Expected move | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | 7,753 – 7,807 | 7,731 – 7,829 | 7,785.76 | ±70.7 | inside |
| 2026-08-13 | 7,770 – 7,819 | 7,748 – 7,841 | 7,798.99 | ±72.4 | inside |
| 2026-08-12 | 7,724 – 7,801 | 7,703 – 7,823 | 7,748.50 | ±70.7 | inside |
| 2026-08-11 | 7,656 – 7,804 | 7,584 – 7,878 | 7,728.20 | ±74.5 | inside |
| 2026-08-10 | 7,677 – 7,803 | 7,613 – 7,825 | 7,753.11 | ±72.6 | inside |
| 2026-08-07 | 7,682 – 7,761 | 7,660 – 7,784 | 7,757.64 | ±74.0 | inside |
| 2026-08-06 | 7,669 – 7,747 | 7,646 – 7,772 | 7,709.96 | ±75.3 | inside |
| 2026-08-05 | 7,673 – 7,753 | 7,649 – 7,776 | 7,723.55 | ±75.5 | inside |
| 2026-08-04 | 7,608 – 7,752 | 7,538 – 7,808 | 7,736.52 | ±80.2 | inside |
| 2026-08-03 | 7,499 – 7,618 | 7,476 – 7,641 | 7,600.50 | ±75.5 | inside |
| 2026-07-31 | 7,378 – 7,543 | 7,298 – 7,625 | 7,489.72 | ±82.7 | inside |
| 2026-07-30 | 7,307 – 7,471 | 7,228 – 7,552 | 7,437.63 | ±82.1 | inside |
| 2026-07-29 | 7,333 – 7,501 | 7,251 – 7,584 | 7,316.15 | ±84.5 | 68% miss |
| 2026-07-28 | 7,309 – 7,479 | 7,227 – 7,563 | 7,428.78 | ±85.0 | inside |
| 2026-07-27 | 7,375 – 7,551 | 7,289 – 7,639 | 7,413.18 | ±88.5 | inside |
| 2026-07-24 | 7,317 – 7,493 | 7,231 – 7,581 | 7,411.98 | ±88.5 | inside |
| 2026-07-23 | 7,371 – 7,504 | 7,302 – 7,529 | 7,408.30 | ±78.8 | inside |
Earnings Radar
What the option market charges vs what the stock does
Published every Sunday for the week ahead. For each name reporting, the board compares the implied move priced into options against the typical move that stock has actually delivered on its last nine reports. When those two disagree, that is the trade.
This week's board
Live predictions for the coming week, published before the reports. Verdict is the ratio of implied to typical: RICH means options cost more than the stock usually moves, CHEAP means less.
| Symbol | Reports | Session | Implied | Typical | Verdict | Up-rate | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | 08-18 | pre | 4.2% | 2.0% | RICH 2.10× | 56% | this week |
| TGT | 08-19 | pre | 6.9% | 7.6% | CHEAP 0.91× | 22% | this week |
| LOW | 08-19 | pre | 5.1% | 2.5% | RICH 2.05× | 44% | this week |
| WMT | 08-20 | pre | 4.9% | 4.8% | FAIR 1.02× | 44% | this week |
| BABA | 08-20 | pre | 7.0% | 6.1% | FAIR 1.15× | 44% | this week |
| NVDA | 08-26 | post | 6.7% | 4.3% | RICH 1.53× | 33% | next 2wk |
| MRVL | 08-27 | post | 13.5% | 12.9% | FAIR 1.04× | 56% | next 2wk |
| AVGO | 09-02 | post | 10.1% | 11.0% | CHEAP 0.92× | 56% | next 2wk |
| DELL | 09-03 | post | 16.9% | 12.3% | RICH 1.38× | 44% | next 2wk |
Previous predictions, scored
On every card the conclusion sits in the top-right badge — that is the whole read, and it comes in three colours: ■ green BULLISH means the model expects up, ■ red BEARISH expects down, and ■ grey coin-flip means it has no edge and makes no call at all.
Only the red and green calls are counted below — the same threshold the card itself uses to print the badge, so the table can never disagree with the picture. The grey ones are not predictions and are excluded rather than quietly scored as free wins — a call the model declined to make cannot be right or wrong. Click any row to see the original card exactly as it was posted on X, before the report.
| Symbol | Reported | Session | Our call | Expected | Actual | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 08-12 | post | BEARISH | ±7.2% | -8.4% | hit | card → |
| LITE | 08-11 | post | BULLISH | ±9.1% | +13.6% | hit | card → |
| ASTS | 08-10 | post | BULLISH | ±11.0% | +4.2% | hit | card → |
| RKLB | 08-10 | post | BEARISH | ±10.9% | -0.0% | hit | card → |
| QBTS | 08-06 | pre | BULLISH | ±8.6% | -9.3% | miss | card → |
| RGTI | 08-06 | post | BULLISH | ±7.6% | +8.5% | hit | card → |
| CRCL | 08-05 | pre | BULLISH | ±9.5% | +0.1% | hit | card → |
| UBER | 08-05 | pre | BULLISH | ±5.0% | -5.3% | miss | card → |
| IONQ | 08-05 | post | BULLISH | ±10.2% | -0.5% | miss | card → |
| OXY | 08-05 | post | BULLISH | ±4.6% | +4.1% | hit | card → |
| AMD | 08-04 | post | BULLISH | ±7.6% | -7.0% | miss | card → |
| CVX | 07-31 | pre | BEARISH | ±2.1% | +2.4% | miss | card → |
| MA | 07-30 | pre | BULLISH | ±2.4% | +2.5% | hit | card → |
| AMZN | 07-30 | post | BULLISH | ±6.7% | +15.3% | hit | card → |
| MSFT | 07-29 | post | BULLISH | ±6.1% | +15.5% | hit | card → |
| BA | 07-28 | pre | BULLISH | ±4.0% | +4.8% | hit | card → |
| STX | 07-28 | post | BULLISH | ±12.5% | +2.3% | hit | card → |
| INTC | 07-23 | post | BEARISH | ±10.4% | -7.9% | hit | card → |
| TSLA | 07-22 | post | BEARISH | ±5.2% | -14.5% | hit | card → |
| TSM | 07-16 | pre | BULLISH | ±3.4% | -2.3% | miss | card → |
| NFLX | 07-16 | post | BEARISH | ±8.1% | -7.3% | hit | card → |
| MS | 07-15 | pre | BULLISH | ±3.1% | +0.4% | hit | card → |
How it's built
- Implied — the at-the-money straddle on the first expiry after the report, over spot. That is literally what the market charges you to own the move.
- Typical — mean absolute reaction across the last 9 prints, from the tape.
- Session alignment — a pre-market report moves the stock that day; an after-close report moves it the next. Measure both the same way and a fairly-priced option looks 4× too expensive. Most sources do exactly that.
- Silent weeks — if fewer than two covered names report, no board is published rather than padding one out.
Structure Read
The chart the desk actually trades from
Not a price line. Zig-zag pivots, the break triggers on both sides, measured targets, the volume-at-price magnet profile on the right edge, and the read written out underneath. 6 names below are the full desk chart; all 76 covered tickers are searchable.
Research
Institutional flow · Q2 2026
Rebuilt from SEC's raw 13F filings rather than a vendor feed. Net flow is change in share count × quarter-end price — change in reported value just tells you the stock went up.
- Splits restated from the holders themselves, not a data feed.
- Entity migration excluded — a manager re-registering is not buying.
- CUSIP changes and share classes netted by issuer.
- Misreported rows dropped against the filers' own consensus price.
Filing dredge · who got the $100B
SEC filings are the original record, public before anyone writes them up. This study read 124 companies' own 10-Qs to find where the struck-down tariff refunds actually landed.
- Form 4, code P only — an open-market purchase with the insider's own cash. Grants, option exercises and scheduled 10b5-1 sales say nothing about conviction.
- Schedule 13D — somebody crossing 5% with intent to influence.
- Scanned twice a day, straight from EDGAR full-text.
Balder-algo-logs · 龙气🤖
The short book — you see what it buys
Positions last from a few hours to a few days. Entries, adds and exits are reported as they happen, and half an hour after the close one card sums up every trade of the day — not the good ones picked afterwards, all of them.
Two strategies, run independently
They are trying to do different things, so they never interfere with each other.
Every closed trade
Newest first. The record is complete because each entry was published before the outcome was known.
| Symbol | Strategy | Opened | Closed | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | Momentum | 08-12 | 08-14 | 342.81 | 348.98 | +1.8% |
| QBTS | Momentum | 08-10 | 08-13 | 20.60 | 21.17 | +2.8% |
| NFLX | Momentum | 08-12 | 08-13 | 74.33 | 75.79 | +2.0% |
| IONQ | Momentum | 08-13 | 08-13 | 45.55 | 46.13 | +1.3% |
| TSLA | Oversold bounce | 08-10 | 08-13 | 327.74 | 339.96 | +3.7% |
| WDC | Momentum | 08-06 | 08-12 | 423.31 | 452.60 | +6.9% |
| MU | Momentum | 08-06 | 08-12 | 851.34 | 904.46 | +6.2% |
| TSM | Momentum | 08-07 | 08-12 | 418.07 | 428.06 | +2.4% |
| STX | Momentum | 08-10 | 08-12 | 816.99 | 885.94 | +8.4% |
| IONQ | Momentum | 08-10 | 08-12 | 42.62 | 44.34 | +4.0% |
| ARM | Momentum | 08-12 | 08-12 | 273.26 | 268.26 | -1.8% |
| MCD | Momentum | 08-11 | 08-12 | 271.94 | 274.80 | +1.1% |
| HOOD | Oversold bounce | 08-10 | 08-12 | 93.07 | 94.91 | +2.0% |
| MRVL | Momentum | 08-04 | 08-11 | 219.71 | 210.57 | -4.2% |
| GOOGL | Momentum | 08-11 | 08-11 | 353.41 | 349.59 | -1.1% |
| CRCL | Momentum | 08-10 | 08-11 | 66.61 | 70.29 | +5.5% |
| NFLX | Momentum | 08-11 | 08-11 | 75.92 | 76.72 | +1.1% |
| ARM | Momentum | 08-10 | 08-11 | 270.64 | 267.39 | -1.2% |
| INTC | Momentum | 08-07 | 08-10 | 99.33 | 96.98 | -2.4% |
| MCD | Momentum | 08-07 | 08-10 | 275.54 | 272.34 | -1.2% |
| ORCL | Momentum | 08-04 | 08-07 | 146.74 | 145.16 | -1.1% |
| STX | Momentum | 08-07 | 08-07 | 827.41 | 780.91 | -5.6% |
| ARM | Momentum | 08-07 | 08-07 | 282.50 | 278.97 | -1.2% |
| BE | Momentum | 08-04 | 08-07 | 230.75 | 215.80 | -6.5% |
| IONQ | Momentum | 08-05 | 08-07 | 40.23 | 43.07 | +7.1% |
| RGTI | Momentum | 08-05 | 08-07 | 16.89 | 17.88 | +5.9% |
| TSLA | Oversold bounce | 08-04 | 08-07 | 322.06 | 328.57 | +2.0% |
| STX | Momentum | 08-04 | 08-06 | 863.59 | 788.72 | -8.7% |
| IBM | Momentum | 08-05 | 08-06 | 234.50 | 231.47 | -1.3% |
| AAPL | Oversold bounce | 08-03 | 08-06 | 307.30 | 312.40 | +1.7% |
| TSM | Momentum | 08-04 | 08-05 | 416.20 | 420.61 | +1.1% |
| WDC | Momentum | 08-03 | 08-05 | 515.51 | 561.49 | +8.9% |
| ASTS | Momentum | 08-03 | 08-04 | 63.51 | 70.62 | +11.2% |
| NOK | Oversold bounce | 07-31 | 08-04 | 9.44 | 9.92 | +5.1% |
| CRCL | Momentum | 07-31 | 08-03 | 62.01 | 58.85 | -5.1% |
| INTC | Momentum | 08-03 | 08-03 | 87.78 | 90.67 | +3.3% |
| IBM | Oversold bounce | 07-29 | 08-03 | 224.37 | 226.30 | +0.9% |
| SPCX | Oversold bounce | 07-29 | 08-03 | 115.40 | 114.47 | -0.8% |
| TSLA | Oversold bounce | 07-29 | 08-03 | 305.80 | 322.07 | +5.3% |
| SPY | Oversold bounce | 07-31 | 08-03 | 740.37 | 757.69 | +2.3% |
| QQQ | Oversold bounce | 07-30 | 07-31 | 678.30 | 693.29 | +2.2% |
| MRVL | Oversold bounce | 07-30 | 07-31 | 178.11 | 192.00 | +7.8% |
Home/Products/Balder's Position
Balder’s Position
The long book — every name, in and out
Uptrend trend-following. Published after the close, so you can take it in the after-hours session or the next morning — the holding period is long enough that the first few minutes do not decide the trade. Every position carries its reasoning.
Disclosed on the way in and on the way out — which is why the table below is complete by construction. There is no version of it with the losers removed.
| Symbol | In | Out | Entry | Last / exit | Return | Held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RGTI | OPEN | 14.46 | 18.82 | +30.2% | — | |
| QBTS | OPEN | 17.68 | 21.17 | +19.7% | — | |
| ASTS | OPEN | 55.45 | 70.98 | +28.0% | — | |
| IONQ | OPEN | 36.52 | 46.26 | +26.7% | — | |
| IBM | OPEN | 225.71 | 234.32 | +3.8% | — | |
| NFLX | OPEN | 73.53 | 78.16 | +6.3% | — | |
| NVDA | OPEN | 226.04 | 225.16 | -0.4% | — | |
| BRK-B | 08-03 | 08-15 | 517.22 | 505.97 | -2.2% | 12d |
| GOOGL | 08-06 | 08-13 | 357.54 | 346.03 | -3.2% | 7d |
| MCD | 08-06 | 08-12 | 275.65 | 275.04 | -0.2% | 6d |
| INTC | 07-29 | 08-12 | 81.88 | 102.50 | +25.2% | 14d |
| ARM | 07-30 | 08-12 | 241.54 | 274.30 | +13.6% | 13d |
| WDC | 07-29 | 08-11 | 462.04 | 437.67 | -5.3% | 13d |
| MU | 08-03 | 08-11 | 829.50 | 861.22 | +3.8% | 8d |
| TSM | 08-03 | 08-11 | 406.11 | 420.79 | +3.6% | 8d |
| STX | 07-28 | 08-11 | 747.30 | 821.22 | +9.9% | 14d |
| BE | 07-30 | 08-10 | 209.63 | 212.39 | +1.3% | 11d |
| UNH | 07-29 | 08-10 | 420.57 | 408.38 | -2.9% | 12d |
| MRVL | 08-06 | 08-10 | 210.54 | 213.69 | +1.5% | 4d |
| CRCL | 07-31 | 08-10 | 62.61 | 66.25 | +5.8% | 10d |
Handbook · 订阅使用说明书
How to use the subscription
Three channels, identical content — pick whichever is easiest. If you subscribe on X, do it in a web browser: subscribing inside the iOS app adds Apple's 30% cut.
1 · Balder-algo-logs — the short book
Close to a follow-along feed: you see what it buys, as it buys it. It runs two strategies, oversold bounce and momentum, holds from a few hours to a few days, reports every trade live, and posts one summary card half an hour after the close.
The two strategies run independently and never interfere — they are trying to do different things. Every closed trade is here →
2 · Balder’s Position — the long book
Uptrend trend-following. It goes out after the close, so you can trade it in the after-hours session or the next morning — the horizon is long enough that the first few minutes do not decide it. Every position comes with its reasoning and analysis; ask if any part of it isn't clear.
Disclosed on entry and on exit, so the record is complete — winners and losers both. See the record →
3 · Earnings Radar
The badge in the top-right corner is the whole read:
Green — the model expects up
Red — the model expects down
Grey — coin-flip, the model is
making no call at all
Grey does not mean "unsure". It means the model declined to act, and those are excluded from the record rather than scored as free wins. The scored history is here →
4 · What is free
The SPX cone and the 24/7 board are free to everyone right now — no subscription needed.
24/7 board → SPX probability cone → Free Discord →
5 · What comes next
More tutorials, more strategies, more products — the research loop runs continuously and what survives gets published.
Membership · Beta
Trade with Balder
One price, three ways to pay, identical content on every one of them — the marked book, the cone, the radar, and the reasoning behind each call. What you get, in detail →
Also on X at $5 (subscribe on the web, not in the app — the app adds Apple's 30%) and Substack at $10. All three carry identical content. Full handbook →
- Send $10 for each month you want on Venmo — $30 gets you three.
- Put your email address in the payment note. That is the only way we know where to send you.
- The system reads the payment and enrols you automatically — usually within half an hour, no forms.
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The address you followed doesn’t match anything on this site — most likely a link from before the pages moved to their own addresses. Everything the desk publishes is one click away.
Elsewhere
Follow the desk
The daily posts run on X, long-form goes to Substack, and the community room is free to join — no payment needed for any of those.
X · @Balder13946731
The read as it happens — market calls, filings, and the charts from this desk.
Follow on X →Substack · baldertrader
The letters, the research write-ups, and everything that needs more than a post.
Read on Substack →Markets Around the Clock
The live 24/7 price board — SPX, NDX and the stocks that actually trade overnight.
Open the board →Discord
Ask questions, argue with the calls, and see what other members are trading.
Join the room →